Validation of landscape planning framework based on an assessment of ecological resistance and ecological risk [an abstract of entire text]

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Validation of landscape planning framework based on an assessment of ecological resistance and ecological risk [an
abstract of entire text]

Xu, Menglin

北海道大学. 博士(農学) 甲第15607号

2023-09-25

http://hdl.handle.net/2115/90843

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theses (doctoral - abstract of entire text)

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【課程博士】

博 士 論 文 の 要 約

博士の専攻分野の名称： 博

士（農学）

学

位

氏名

論

文

題

Xu Menglin

名

Validation of landscape planning framework based on an assessment of ecological
resistance and ecological risk
(生態学的抵抗力と生態学的リスクの評価に基づく景観計画手法の検証)



Backgrounds and objectives
Natural disasters and human activities have significant negative impacts on ecosystem

stability, leading to the destruction of ecological structures and making habit fragmented.
Furthermore, potential risks and threats (human aggregation, heavy rainfall, etc.) are still
present and have a continuous impact. Ecological analysis is important for landscape planning
sustainable development, biodiversity conservation, long-term resilience (Makhzoumi and
Pungetti, 2003; Huang et al., 2022; Eikaas et al., 2023;). Ecological connectivity analysis can
identify areas and corridors for maintaining connectivity between habitats (CMS, 2019), and
ecological risk analysis can measure and predict the possible impact or harm on the ecosystem
(Gao and Song, 2022). However, both are not sufficient in landscape planning. In this case,
two main landscape types were selected for ecological assessment: mountainous areas and
coastal areas. The aim of the study was to assess, analyze and predict the ecological status of
landscape types through ecological connectivity analysis and ecological risk analysis, and to
consider the necessity and applicability of ecological analysis for landscape sustainable
planning and development. In more details, this paper focused on the Tianmeng Scenic Spot
in China and the eastern coastal areas of Japan as the study areas, its main aims were to assess
the ecological connectivity and ecological risk in response to human activities and natural
disasters, explore the main driving indicators and vulnerable areas affecting ecological
stability, and then predicted the future development trends.
Chapter 2 Establishing Landscape networks Based on Visual Quality and Ecological
Resistance: A case study in Tianmeng Scenic Spot


Materials and methods
1

Scenic spot has received widespread attention for its landscape aesthetics and ecological
values, but the rapid growth of tourism paths and activities led to habitat fragmentation. It
increased travelers' convenience to diverse destinations (Jangra et al., 2023), but with the
negative impact on wildlife movement for connectivity (Shi et al., 2018). Human recreation
needs rely on visual impact and aesthetic quality (Gobster et al., 2007; Lafortezza et al., 2008;
Botzat et al., 2016), however, visual evaluation often solely relies on subjective perceptions
(Kang & liu, 2022). The first Chapter analyzed and evaluated ecological connectivity and
visual quality of Tianmeng mountain, and combined them to build the sustainable landscape
networks. In this study, the landscape visual assessment of Tianmeng Scenic Spot is based on
both landscape visual sensitivity (LVS) from the objective aspect and landscape aesthetic
evaluation (LAE) from the subjective aspect. The construction of ecological-resistance
surfaces depends on the selection of resistance factors can reflect the status of ecological
connectivity, and then the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model was applied to
select the ecological corridors.


Results and discussion
The results showed that the landscape quality of Tianmeng Scenic Spot still needed to be

improved as landscape viewpoints with both high landscape aesthetics and visual sensitivity
only accounted for 32.4%. The subjective landscape aesthetics and objective landscape visual
sensitivity in Tianmeng Scenic Spot had a strong correlation in the evaluation of landscape
quality, and improvement of landscape aesthetics could improve the quality of Tianmeng
Scenic Spot to a certain extent. The comprehensive visual analysis of 34 viewpoints revealed
the shortcomings of the landscape, such as the lack of landscape aesthetics but these locations
were easily seen. Lack of accessibility despite the high landscape quality meant that three
categories were formed according to the results of evaluation: landscape core viewpoints,
landscape enhancement viewpoints, and follow-up supplementary-development viewpoints,
so that the landscape status could be targeted to improve. In the analysis of ecological
resistance surfaces, the very-high resistance areas, and high resistance areas (low ecological
connectivity) were mostly distributed in the main tourism roads and their buffer areas around
the northwest of Tianmeng Scenic Spot. 27 short cost and resistance paths were identified
respectively using the MCR model to connect high-quality landscape points, respectively. The
paths distributed in low resistance areas served as ecological corridors for wildlife migration
and eco-friendly transportation routes, and cannot be developed or constructed as paved
roads, others distributed in high resistance areas can be used as convenient transportation
2

options for tourists.
Chapter 3 Multi-dimensional and multi-temporal landscape ecological risk assessment in the
eastern coastal areas of Japan


Materials and methods
The eastern coast areas of Japan are threatened by multiple ecological risks due to

frequent natural disasters, climate changes, human activities, etc. Taking the eastern coastal
areas of Japan as the research object, this study performed the analysis of the spatio-temporal
patterns and driving mechanisms of ecological risk from 2009 to 2021 by establishing the
ecological risk assessment framework of "Nature - Landscape Pattern - Human Society"
(NA-LP-HS) based on ArcGIS. It was important to determine the scale of the study area
before conducting the ecological risk analysis, we performed optimal performance tests using
multiples of the resolution of the analyzed data. After conducting an ecological risk analysis,
the principal component analysis (PCA) model was used to rank the main driving factors of
the ecological risk.


Results and discussion
The ecological risk in the research area had a trend of gradually decreasing from the

southwest to the northeast. From 2009 to 2015, the reason for the sudden increase of
ecological risk lies in the natural disasters, with the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and
Tsunami Disaster as the typical representative. The regions with the greatest risk increase
were radiated by Sendai, including Sendai Bay, Fukushima, Sanriku-minami, and
Sanriku-kita; from 2015 to 2021, areas of the greatest risk increase come from the urban
cluster centered around Tokyo, comprising Tokyo Bay, Sagami Bay, Chiba, and Ibaraki. The
aggravation of rainfall erosion, and landslide and mudslide disasters were the main causes of
ecological instability. The results of PCA showed that the main risk driving aspects from the
southwest to the northeast were greatly influenced by human activities, landscape features,
and natural aspects, respectively. This study demonstrated the ability of multidimensional
ecological risk assessment to identify high-risk areas and driving factors, and provide a visual
analysis and decision-making basis for sustainable development.
Chapter 4 Predictions of vegetation changes in coastal areas with sea level rise in Sendai,
Japan


Materials and methods
3

Based on the ecological risk analysis of the Eastern Japanese coastal zone in the previous
chapter, the results showed that the driving factor of ecological risk in the Sendai area were
vegetation coverage and land use and land cover. As vegetation coverage was important for
the Sendai region as a major driver of risk affecting, Chapter 4 aimed to explore the
relationship between the survivable space of coastal vegetation and coastal width, and to
predict the coastal inundation area and plant growth space based on sea level rise. Four study
sites in Sendai region (Gamou, Arahama, Yuriage, and Ido) were selected to analyze the
relationship between coastal vegetation, coastal width, and sea level rise in the context of
climate change. In this study, field survey on vegetation at the above four sites were
conducted, and then the relationship between vegetation distribution and coastal width was
investigated. Subsequently, based on projections of future sea level rise from the 6th
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 6), the inundation of the coastal zone
inundation of the coastal zone was projected based on the ArcGIS. Future vegetation coverage
varied according to the inundated coastal zone.


Results and discussion
The results revealed that when the coastal zone width was less than 61.5m, vegetation

was almost nonexistent. Among the five scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and
SSP585) considered for sea level rise, SSP585 exhibited the fastest rate of rise, followed by
SSP370, SSP245, SSP126, SSP119 which had the slowest sea level growth rate, representing
a greener and more sustainable path. In predicting the vegetation distribution from 2030 to
2150, it was observed that Ido started to experience no plants existing in the SSP585 scenario
by 2090. By 2150, except for the Yuriage, all the study areas were in the poor ecological state,
no plants survived in the study area under the SSP585 scenario. Most of the coastal spaces of
this study were insufficient to cope with future sea-level rise. ...

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