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Spatial Analysis of Urban Wetland Ecosystem Service Value Changes in Muthurajawela Marsh and Negombo Lagoon, Sri Lanka

ATHUKORALA ARACHCHIGE SUMUDU DARSHANA 筑波大学 DOI:10.15068/0002005478

2022.11.18

概要

The Muthurajawela Marsh and Negombo Lagoon (MMNL), the biggest coastal saltwater peat bog in Sri Lanka, is located in the Colombo Metropolitan Region (CMR), the country's capital and the location of the MMNL. During the past two decades, the CMR has grown very rapidly; the MMNL's natural environment and the combined wetland ecosystem services they provided (flood attenuation, industrial wastewater treatment, agriculture production, and support to downstream fisheries) are now in danger. Therefore, the state of the MMNL and the trajectory of Land Use/Cover (LUC) change should be evaluated urgently before more irreparable ecological damage occurs.

　The main objectives of this study are to project future LUC and wetland ecosystem services value (ESV) changes in the MMNL and to explain their implications for future wetland landscape conservation and urban planning. Geospatial data, tools, and techniques such as Remote Sensing (RS), socio-economic and filed data, Geographic Information System (GIS), the Land Change Modeler (LCM), and ESV coefficients have been used to (1) calculate the LUC and ESV changes from 1997 to 2017; (2) examine the driving force of urbanization and spatial drivers for LUC change and (3) predict the future LUC and ESV changes from 2017 to 2030 based on two scenarios. Scenario 1 is Business As Usual (BAU), based on the continued expansion of LUC pattern changes from 2007 to 2017 in all areas, including marshland, mangrove, and protected areas. Scenario 2 is the Ecological Protection scenario (EP), based on the trends of LUC changes from 2007 to 2017, but with the complete protection of two protected areas and with a 20% reduction in the current urban pressure on the MMNL.

　The results revealed that the spatial and socio-economic elements of the rapid urbanization of the MMNL had been the main driver of the transformation of its natural environment over the past 20 years. This is indicated by a substantial expansion of settlements (+70%) and a considerable decrease of marshland and mangrove cover (-28% and -42%, respectively). The MMNL's urbanization has been driven by interrelated socio-economic and biophysical factors. The spatial drivers that impact LUC change patterns include distance to road, distance to growth node, distance to lagoon, distance to the protected area, elevation, and slope.

　The LUC changes between 1997 to 2017 considerably impaired the total ESV of the MMNL. The results revealed that from 1997 to 2017, the overall ESV of the MMNL has declined by United States Dollar (USD) 8.96 million/year (Sri Lankan Rupees (LKR) 1642 million/year), or about 33%, primarily due to the loss of mangrove and marshland from urban (settlement) expansion. Under the BAU scenario, it would continue to decrease by about USD 6.01 million/year (LKR 1101 million/year), or about 34%, in 2030. However, under the EP scenario, the decrease would only be about USD 4.79 million/year (LKR 878 million/year) or about 27% Among the ecosystem services of the MMNL that have been, and would be, affected the most are flood attenuation, industrial wastewater treatment, agriculture production, and support to downstream fisheries (fish breeding and nursery). Overall, between the two scenarios, the EP scenario is the more desirable scenario for the sustainability of the MMNL. The urban wetland environment and the wetland ecosystem services of the MMNL are immensely significant in accomplishing many vital roles to the city drawlers in the CMR; hence, they should be considered by local government planners and decision-makers.

　From the scientific approach, this study has provided insight into the past and future wetland landscape and ESV change in the MMNL, and research methods and techniques related to LUC change modeling and the monitoring of ESV change. Notably, this study has used the LCM to calibrate the LUC change model, measured the LUC modeling accuracy, and investigated the ESV changes in the Grama Niladhari (GN) division level in the context of landscape conservation and urban planning.

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