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Research on GM-LSTM Hybrid Model for Tourism Prediction Based on One Belt and One Road

鄭 舒心 富山大学

2020.09.28

概要

The value and significance of the ancient road of silk are fully analyzed, and the cultural connotation and the role of promoting economic development of One Belt and One Road proposed by China are summarized in this thesis. Due to the rich tourism resources along the silk road: high grade, good quality, complete types, strong attraction, with the characteristics of "cultural heritage and natural scenery concurrence, ancient culture and modern civilization coexist". The integration of culture and tourism has strengthened exchanges and mutual learning among different cultures and promoted the integration of cultural and tourism resources around the world. With the support of modern transportation, a unique tourism economic belt has been formed. Therefore, to promote and jointly build the high-quality One Belt and One Road through tourism development, will further break regional and industrial barriers, further promote inter-civilization as well as economic and cultural exchanges and strengthen cooperation in technological innovation, infrastructure and transportation construction, and establish an international division of labor system featuring mutual trust, rationality and win-win results, and make industrial structures complementary and mutually beneficial, and break new ground of regional cooperation and the integration of the economy in Asia and Europe. Therefore, the development of "One Belt And One Road" tourism has great market potential and great economic and cultural value.

Along with the development in the tourism industry circle, the study of tourism and management put forward higher and more precise requirements. Artificial neural network is a pure computing model based on human brain tissue structure, succeeded in solving many practical problems in the modern computer, and it also has a outstanding performance in the study of the tourism problems, provides a good theoretical basis of the management and decision-making of the tourism. Since tourism data are in a small data set with observation data discreteness and nonlinearity, there are big limitations to prediction mode.

The following models are introduced in this thesis. The grey model, utilizing differential equations to characterize the complex system and making short-term prediction; the rolling window scheme for grey model; increasing the forecasting accuracy; LSTM, solving the convergence problems faced by traditional neural networks for the time sequence forecast, a kind of recurrent neural network (RNN); RBFNN model, Two new hybrid nonlinear dynamic prediction methods based on the neural network of radial basis function and iterative nonlinear filter; ARIMA model, well-establishing time series model for tourist forecasting; and GM-LSTM hybrid model, integrating the first-order grey model and LSTM neural network with a rolling mechanism. So two groups of models with good performance in tourism prediction are selected: the models related to neural network and classical traditional models. For convenience of comparison, three models are selected from each group: RBFNN with IEKF and IUKF, LSTM and SDNM for the models related to neural network, and classic traditional models including ARIMA, GM and Rolling GM. Then, the same data set and the same simulation software are used for calculation to predict the arrivals to Xi’an from the countries along the OBOR. After the evaluation results, the best performance models of each group was screened out. Then, it is compared with the GM - LSTM model proposed in this thesis.

On the basis of studying the classical model and the neural network model, this thesis uses the mobile window technology combined with GM to obtain rolling - GM, which is used to predict the development trend of the data. Then, the LSTM model is used to predict the residual, and the predicted values of the above two are added up to obtain the predicted results.

Among the above models, the GM-LSTM hybrid model is proposed in this thesis. We take the prediction of the arrival number of tourists from countries along the route of One Belt and One Road to Xi 'an as the target and use the above models for analysis and calculation. Then the results of comparison of the working models show that the GM-LSTM hybrid model integrates the advantages of the grey model (GM) and the neural network (NN), and can make self-adaptive prediction based on the observation of small samples. The first-order grey model is applied to describe the overall trend of tourism demand, and the nonlinear residual fluctuation of tourism demand is described by the LSTM network with rolling mechanism. Based on the case analysis of the annual arrival number of international tourists in Xi 'an from 1980 to 2018, the hybrid model of GM-LSTM is evaluated in effectiveness and compared with the standard time series model in result. The study result shows that the proposed hybrid model of GM-LSTM is more accurate and more effective for tourism prediction. Therefore, the GM-LSTM model is a more effective model for time series prediction with a small amount of data and high degree of nonlinearity. The model can not only predict tourism problems, but also has a good reference value in the prediction of other similar events.

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