酪農経営における投資限界の経済性に関するリスク分析—飼養頭数と増頭数—

概要

わが国の酪農は長時間労働と建物・機械・施設などへの資本投資が必要で，農家の経営継承と新規就農を阻んできた。設備投資による収益性の向上が期待される。事前の投資の経済評価測定には，一般的に正味現在価値（NPV）が主に用いられている。本稿では，飼養頭数の増減が投下資金の回収にどのように影響を及ぼすのかについて定量分析を行った。
Dairy farming in Japan has required a longer work and an intensive investment. Those are the primary reason that farmers do not handle management succession or new farming. Regarding the economic evaluation measurement of investment, the net present value (NPV) is mainly used, but uncertainty is not explicitly taken into consideration. Unlike another business model, in farm management analysis, the risk analysis framework has seldom been applied.
This study aimed to illustrate to apply it to one dairy farm using cash flows in the financial statement. The simulation was employed by setting the number of cows and increment as input.
The result showed that there was not a significant difference between deterministic and stochastic settings. The timing of the year was around five years when cumulative capital recovery amount by the cow that increased and is less than investment limit. As the advantage of this research, the output was visualized by the probability distribution function.

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