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105
CHAPTER 5
Findings and Conclusion
Sustainable transportation is important to climate change strategies, particularly in developing
countries, including India, which can be integrated into development goals such as health and wellbeing, as well as clean energy and sustainable cities. Therefore, identifying tangible co-benefits to
justify actions to fulfill climate change mitigation and other human development goals is critical.
Public transportation, which runs on battery electricity and NMT, can be an essential component
for such a strategy, as electric buses and NMT have a lower carbon footprint and provide
substantial economic benefits in preventing health impacts.
In India, structural problems with transportation are manifested by pollution and congestion;
thus, policymakers must choose the most effective solution for sustainable urban transportation,
keeping in mind the physical environment, public health, and economic dimensions, including
improving economic efficiency and social welfare. The ambition of using electric buses to reduce
pollution and congestion is being hampered by a lack of charging infrastructure and the need for
extensive training. In the case of NMT, the space on the road is shared by motorized and nonpowered modes in Delhi, bicycle infrastructure has not been constructed, and pedestrian
infrastructure has received little attention in most Indian cities, including Delhi. In most Indian
cities, including Delhi, NMT means are important in meeting transportation needs. The reliance
on NMT transit modes will increase in the foreseeable future if safety and infrastructure needs are
met, notwithstanding the increased economic prosperity and interest in owning motor vehicles in
urban areas. The provision of infrastructure for nonmotorized modes has not received enough
attention required in transportation planning studies carried out to date in major cities; therefore,
policymakers should pay special attention to this aspect.
Considering our findings and the current infrastructure regarding battery-electric public
transport and NMT (Walking and cycling) in Delhi, the electrification of the bus fleet in the urban
transportation system in Delhi is a challenging and cost-intensive scenario for the local government
due to the cost of the battery and required investments in constructing charging stations. Although
costs are substantial, failing to recognize the co-benefits, particularly benefits that outweigh the
costs (e.g., public health), can lead to flawed policy implementation. Deploying battery swapping
and charging stations across Delhi can help implement BEB transportation. While creating NMT
facilities in Delhi may also be costly due to the need to build and improve bike lanes, paths, and
crosswalks as well as design safer roads for NMT transportation. However, massive savings in
annual health costs may outweigh investments in infrastructure in just a couple of years.
106
5.1. Major findings:
5.1.1. Public health, environmental and economic benefits of the utilization of BEB
transportation:
The utilization of the new BEB fleet leads to a 74.67% reduction in the total pollutant
emissions from the existing bus fleet in Delhi.
The results revealed a significant reduction of 315 kt/y in CO2 emission and 44 t/y of
avoided PM2.5 emission from the utilization of the BEB fleet in the Delhi urban
transportation system.
The expected reduction in mortality and respiratory diseases related hospital admission
cases from the avoided near roadway PM2.5 exposure ranges from 67 (low) to 1370 (high) and
137 (low) to 2808 (high), respectively, which will be associated with the considerable
economic benefits for the local government in Delhi.
5.1.2. NMT (walking and cycling) as a part of the Sustainable transportation strategy in
Delhi:
Based on the NMT willingness analysis findings, the average per capita time spent on
walking and bicycling were estimated as 11.1 and 2.3 min, respectively, which is equal to
covering an extra walking and cycling distance of 1.18 km per day based on the average
walking and cycling speed in Delhi.
The increased physical activity and avoiding exposure to PM2.5 near roadways are expected
to reduce the mortality rate by 17529 cases in addition to reducing other morbidities, as
indicated in this study, while physical activity plays a significant role in reducing
mortalities and morbidities.
The associated cost savings from mortalities were approximately 4,869.8 million USD
annually, which will positively impact Delhi's local government's finances.
5.1.3. Valuing co-benefits to make low transport emission investments in Delhi:
The monetization of health co-benefits significantly improves the financial viability of the
transport low emissions strategies development in Delhi.
As explained in chapter 3, the electric bus fleet could replace only 74.67% of the total
existing CNG bus fleet under the same traveling condition. Thus, extra electric buses would
be needed, if the local government intends to replace all CNG buses. Although, a 100%
replacement scenario results in additional capital investment, the expected economic
benefits from the avoided health outcome, would recover a major part of these initial costs.
Based on the estimated economic benefits from the avoided health outcome, the BEB fleet
can cover all initial capital cost, which is estimated at USD 1,784 million, within six years
of implementation of the electrification of public transport in Delhi, taking into account its
107
lower operational and maintenance costs per kilometer compared to the conventional
vehicles.
The average investment in walking and bike lanes is around 1 million USD/km in Delhi.
However, findings in chapter 4 indicated that the average saving from improving public
health due to increased physical activity would be 0.3 million USD/ km per year which
makes a strong case for the implementation of NMT infrastructure in Delhi.
5.2.Study limitations:
5.2.1. Uncertainty of near roadway assessment for PM2.5 exposure:
Estimates of emissions, pollutant concentrations, population, and disease rates affect
mortality due to air pollution caused by transportation. There are uncertainties at every
analytical stage of the health effects of air pollution, including identifying emissions, pollutant
concentrations, and associated health implications. The size and spatial distribution of
transportation emissions also bring important uncertainties, so more details focus on near
roadway stations for assessment for PM2.5 should be done.
5.2.2 The detailed cost analysis of the studied low-emission scenarios:
In this study, the cost analysis of the proposed scenarios was not discussed. For example,
the availability of charging infrastructure in Delhi is an important issue that will affect the
future implementation of this policy. Charging systems is the most important part of electric
mobility, but it is also one of the most significant perceived impediments to EV adoption in
Delhi due to low availability and long charging periods. To carry out the Delhi Electric Vehicle
Policy, this goal necessitates the simultaneous penetration of charging stations across Delhi, as
there are currently only 72 public charging stations in Delhi. Therefore, setting up charging
infrastructure at the public level needs to be analyzed in detail, before implementing a batteryelectric public transport system in Delhi.
5.2.3. The lifecycle emissions of electricity generation:
The lifecycle emissions of electricity generation (from coal) were not addressed in this study.
The results revealed that the additional electricity demand by the BEBs is considerable and is
about 1.3 % of Delhi's current total electricity consumption, 34% of which should be supplied
from the coal-fired power plants. Therefore, to maximize the environmental and health cobenefits from the electrification of the whole transport system in Delhi, the local government
needs to decrease its reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation and switch over to
renewable sources for electricity generation.
108
5.2.4.The lack of data availability on RR and limits of the meta-analysis:
Data availability to calculate RR in the case of the Indian scenario remains a challenge due
to limited access to the historical epidemiological statistics on different disease and mortality
rates and also data for the hospital admission costs. Data availability to calculate RR related to
physical activity and health impacts specific to the Indian scenario was also a challenge, as few
studies are available. Moreover, most of the health impact studies on air pollution in India are
currently based on the time-series analysis undertaken in large cities through primary research
only. In order to tackle this challenge, this study mostly relied on available data from China,
Europe, the USA, and other Asian countries that may not be 100% applicable in the case of
the Indian scenario.
5.3. Future work
The current study has only quantified the health and economic co-benefits of Delhi's lowcarbon transportation system (NMT and BEBs). However, other co-benefits of sustainable
transport systems, which include a reduction in traffic congestion, road accident-related mortalities
and injuries, noise reduction, increased energy efficiency, Local job creation, and other social
benefits, could be considered as future work of this research.
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