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Population genetics of variants in infectious diseases and its application to the prediction of variant replacement

Piantham, Chayada 北海道大学

2023.03.23

概要

In 2009, a new strain of H1N1 influenza A virus caused a pandemic, and its descendant variants are
causing seasonal epidemics worldwide. Given the high mutation rate of influenza viruses, variants
having different amino acids on HA continuously emerge. To prepare vaccine strains for the next
influenza seasons, it is an urgent task to predict which strains will be selected in the viral population.
An analysis of 24,681 pairs of amino acid sequences of HA of H1N1 influenza viruses circulating from
2009 to 2020 and their patient age showed that the empirical fixation probability of variants having new
amino acids on HA significantly differed depending on their frequencies in the population, patient age
distributions, and whether or not it involves the antigenic sites. The selective advantage of a variant
having an amino acid substitution on HA was modeled by linear combinations of patient age
distributions and its involvement on antigenic sites. ...

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