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大学・研究所にある論文を検索できる 「Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability Over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and Its Relationship to Midlatitude Teleconnections」の論文概要。リケラボ論文検索は、全国の大学リポジトリにある学位論文・教授論文を一括検索できる論文検索サービスです。
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Subseasonal Forecast Skill for Weekly Mean Atmospheric Variability Over the Northern Hemisphere in Winter and Its Relationship to Midlatitude Teleconnections

Yamagami, Akio 松枝, 未遠 筑波大学

2022.07.07

概要

This study assesses the subseasonal predictability of the weekly mean geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa and its relationship to teleconnections over the Northern Hemisphere in winter. The skill over the North Pacific, Canada, and Greenland is higher than over other areas for weeks 3 and 4 forecasts. These peaks correspond to the centers of action for the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). PNA (NAO phase) predictions are better for El Niño years at lead times of 3–4 weeks (2–4 weeks). The effects of La Niña forcing on PNA and NAO forecasts are small compared with the El Niño forcing. Numerical models have a negative PNA bias at these lead times in La Niña years. Results suggest that the improvement in the midlatitude upper‐level jet rather than in the response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation forcing in the tropics could lead to better S2S predictions.

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