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ミャンマー・インレー湖生物圏保護区緩衝地帯における地域住民による森林の利用と保全

キン, トゥ, ウィン, キョー THU WINT KYAW, KHIN 九州大学

2021.09.24

概要

熱帯における森林減少・劣化は地球環境問題として重要視されており、森林減少の抑制と劣化した森林の回復は SDGs においても喫緊の目標となっている。特に、熱帯の農村域では、薪、食料や薬などの生活物資を近隣の森林から直接得ることが多く、森林への依存度が高いため、森林減少・劣化が地域住民の生活に与える影響を把握することが重要となっている。また、政府主導のトップダウン型の森林管理に対して、近年では、地域住民が主体的に森林を管理するボトムアップ型のコミュニティ林業が注目されるようになり、コミュニティ林業の導入による森林の保全効果の検証が求められている。これまでに、地域住民による薪炭材消費やコミュニティ林業の効果に関する研究は多くみられるが、森林減少・劣化の程度や地理的・社会経済的要因を包括した総合的な研究は少ない。そこで本研究では、森林減少・劣化が著しいミャンマー・インレー湖生物圏保護区緩衝地帯を対象に、地域住民による薪消費量とコミュニティ林業の導入による森林減少の削減効果に及ぼす要因を総合的に評価することを目的とした。

まず、ミャンマー・インレー湖生物圏保護区緩衝地帯に居住する 143 世帯を対象にインタビュー調査を実施し、薪の消費量とその要因を評価した。その結果、全世帯数の 85%が料理用に薪を使用しており、一人当たりの年間薪消費量は 530kg であった。一人当たりの年間薪消費量を従属変数、 10 の因子(森林までの距離、集落中心から半径 5km 区域における閉鎖林率および疎開林率、世帯数、所有農地面積、収入、標高、タバコ葉生産の有無、政府からの事業支援の有無、慣習林の有無)を独立変数とした一般化線形モデルを構築したところ、世帯数、標高、疎開林率が重要度の高い変数として選択され、他の研究で有意な変数として報告されている森林までの距離は重要度が低かった。本研究では、森林劣化の程度が大きいほど一人当たり薪消費量は少なくなることが示唆され、従来から報告されている森林までの距離や世帯数のみならず、森林の状態も薪消費量に影響を与える重要な因子であることを指摘した。

次に、コミュニティ林業の導入による森林減少の削減効果を検討するため、インレー湖生物圏保護区緩衝地帯において 2000 年と 2001 年にコミュニティ林業が導入された 23 か所の林地(CF)について、2001 年から 2019 年までの 19 年間の森林減少の有無を CF 以外の林地と比較した。その際、 CF の非ランダムな配置を考慮して、標高、傾斜および村・都市・道路・河川までの距離を交絡因子とした傾向スコアマッチングにより交絡の影響を除外した。また、23 か所の CF の内、6 か所は木材生産のための保存林(Reserved Forest:RF)に、17 か所は地域消費のための生産林(Public Protected Forest: PPF)に土地利用区分されていることから、RF、PPF それぞれについても CF の導入による森林減少の削減効果を検討した。その結果、23 か所の全ての CF を対象とした際には、19 年間の森林減少率は CF 外と比較して CF 内の方が 0.9%低い傾向にあった(p=0.0503)。一方、RF における森林減少率は CF 外と比較して CF 内の方が 2.68%有意に低かったが(p<0.001)、PPF においては CFの内外で森林減少率に有意な差はなかった(p=0.1766)。このことから、土地利用区分によってコミュニティ林業による森林減少率の削減効果が異なることがわかり、本研究の PPF のように森林減少・劣化の程度が著しい場合には、コミュニティ林業による森林保全効果の発揮が困難であることが示唆された。

さらに、前章で対象とした 23 か所に 1 か所を加えた 24 か所のコミュニティ林業地(CF)内において、森林減少がどのような場所や条件で生じやすいかについて地理的特性とコミュニティ特性の観点から総合的に検討した。2000 年に森林であったピクセルの内、20%のサンプリング強度でランダム抽出した 4094 点を対象に、19 年間の森林減少の有無を応答変数とした混合ロジステック回帰モデルを構築した。説明変数には、地理的特性として CF 面積、2000 年の森林率、標高、傾斜、村・ CF 境界までの距離の 6 つの変数を、コミュニティ特性として参加世帯数、リーダーシップの有無、森林依存度の有無の 3 つの変数を使用した。その結果、重要度の高い説明変数は傾斜、村までの距離、CF 境界までの距離の 3 つの変数であり、その他の変数の重要度は低かった。傾斜が緩いほど、村までの距離が近いほど森林減少確率は高くなり、アクセスがよい森林ほど減少しやすいことがわかった。また、CF 境界までの距離が短いほど森林減少確率は低くなり、CF 境界付近では住民による見回りが頻繁に行われるために森林減少が抑制されていることが示唆された。本研究では森林減少確率の説明変数としてコミュニティ特性の重要度は低く、地理的特性のみが重要な説明変数として選択されたため、特に、コミュニティ林業地を新規に設定する際において、その地理的条件に留意する必要があると考えられた。

以上のことから、ミャンマーの地域住民による森林の利用と保全には、森林減少・劣化の程度、土地利用区分や地理的条件が大きく影響していることがわかった。森林劣化の著しい場所で1人たりの薪消費量は小さくなったことから,森林劣化による薪資源の枯渇が地域住民の生活に負の影響をおよぼす可能性が示唆された。一方、森林減少・劣化の抑制が期待されるコミュニティ林業には実際に森林減少抑制効果が見られたものの、森林減少・劣化の程度が著しい場合その効果が十分でないことも示唆された。すなわち、森林減少・劣化の程度が著しい場所では、地域住民の生活の質が低下するにも関わらず、コミュニティ林業による森林減少・劣化の抑制は期待しづらいことから、一層の森林保全対策が求められる。

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