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A Simulation-Based Design and Evaluation Framework for Energy Product-Service System in Liberalized Electricity Markets

Widha, Kusumaningdyah 京都大学 DOI:10.14989/doctor.k23294

2021.03.23

概要

近年、製品のリサイクルの関心の高まりに伴い、市場で取引される「財( 製品)」に関わる「サービス」のみを市場で取引する Product-Service System の可能性が検討され始めている。そこで本研究では、自由化されたエネルギー市場の下で、エネルギー利用機器を消費者が所有せずにその機器から得られるサービスのみを購入するシステム(Energy Product-Service System, EPSS)の可能性と導入効果について、現行の種々の機器を所有、運転するエネルギー利用システム(“ Energy and Product”-Oriented System, EPOS)との比較に基づいて検討する。ただし過去に経験のない EPSS の評価のために本研究では、現状で利用可能な情報のみに基づく Simulation- based Design(以下では SBD と略記)手法の適用を提案し、家庭における電気機器の利用を例として、EPSS と従来型の EPOS との比較を行い、EPSS が EPOS よりも望ましい特性を持つための条件を探る。本論文は全 5 章から構成される。

第 1 章では、研究の背景を述べた後、EPSS について説明している。

第 2 章では、EPSS の設計手法として上述の SBD 手法について説明する。この手法の最も重要なところは、対象システムに含まれる多様な利害関係者の意思決定内容とその帰結との間の因果関係を利用可能な情報に基づいて想定しモデル化するところにある。いうまでもなく、未だ経験したことのないシステムの設計であれば、不確実な部分の占める割合も多くなる。また、システムには数多くの多様な意思決定者が含まれることから Agent-based Model を用いたシミュレーション手法を同時に利用する。これにより、エネルギー利用技術、社会制度、利害関係者の価値観等に基づいたシミュレーションが可能となる。そして、このシミュレーションを通して、 EPSS 利用者( 消費者)の満足度を損なうことなく、費用や環境負荷の削減、再生可能エネルギー導入の促進などの効果を実現するための、モデルに含まれる意思決定に関わる各種モデルパラメータの満たすべき条件を探ることが可能となる。

第 3 章では、EPSS に関わる種々の利害関係者(消費者、電気機器メーカー、電気事業者、政策担当者)にとって Win-Win な状況を導くための条件を探ることを目的とする。この条件は適切な EPSS 普及のために不可欠なものとなる。そして、この条件分析のために、本研究では各利害関係者にとって最悪の状況を作り出す最悪シナリオ分析手法を提案する。そして、特に利害関係者間の情報共有の構造に着目し、各利害関係者にとって最悪シナリオを導くための条件を探ることにより、望ましい EPSS 普及のための利害関係者間での情報共有のあり方など、各利害関係者にとっての望ましい帰結をもたらす EPSS に関わる各種パラメータに関する条件が定量的分析手法により導かれている。

第 4 章では、第 3 章に述べた最悪シナリオ分析手法を用いて、自由化されたエネルギー市場の下で EPSS 普及の際に再生可能エネルギー導入促進を可能とする条件を求める手法を提案している。そして、その分析結果より、再生可能エネルギーが選択されるための条件として、従来の電力利用システムである EPOS における需要家応答 (Demand Response)よりも EPSS が再生可能エネルギー電力の出力変動吸収に効果的となることや、利害関係者による意思決定に対するシステムの応答が速やかに関係者にフィードバックされること等の必要性が示された。

最後に第 5 章は本論文の結論であり、本研究で得られた主要な結果と今後に残された研究課題について説明している。

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