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A risk score predicting new incidence of hypertension in Japan

門松, 由佳 名古屋大学

2021.06.29

概要

The prevention of hypertension starts with the awareness of risk. Our aim was to construct a simple and well-validated risk model for nonhypertensive people in Japan consisting of basic clinical variables, using a dataset for two areas derived from the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study. We constructed a continuous-value model using data on 5105 subjects participating in both the baseline survey and a second survey conducted after 5 years. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 statistic for the entire cohort were 0.826 and 7.06, respectively. For validation, the entire cohort was randomly divided 100 times into derivation and validation sets at a ratio of 6:4. The summarized median AUC and the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 statistic were 0.83 and 12.2, respectively. The AUC of a point-based model consisting of integer scores assigned to each variable was 0.826 and showed no difference, compared with the continuous-value model. This simple risk model may help the general population to assess their risks of new-onset hypertension.

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